A 1,800 sq ft house in climate zone 4 with average insulation needs about 85,500 BTU/h of heat by the square-foot rule of thumb (47.5 BTU per sq ft). With a 96% AFUE furnace that takes 89,063 BTU/h of input, so the nominal size to price is a 100,000 BTU/h input furnace, which delivers 96,000 BTU/h. A Manual J heat loss calculation is what the final choice should rest on.
How the furnace size is calculated
Three steps: the heat the house loses on a cold day, the input that produces it, and the nearest furnace sold.
Heat needed (BTU/h) = heated sq ft × BTU per sq ft for the zone × (ceiling ÷ 8 ft)
Input rating = heat needed ÷ AFUE; buy the smallest nominal input whose input × AFUE covers the need
A furnace's big number is its input, the gas it burns per hour. AFUE says how much of that reaches the house: Bryant puts it as "a furnace with 80% AFUE delivers 80% of its input BTUs as heat." Output is always input × AFUE, which is why the same house needs a bigger 80% furnace than a 96% one.
BTU per square foot by climate zone
| Climate zone | Examples | Heating BTU/h per sq ft |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Florida, Hawaii | 30 to 35 |
| 2 | Most of Florida, south Texas | 35 to 40 |
| 3 | Central Texas, Georgia, the Carolinas, most of California | 40 to 45 |
| 4 | Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri | 45 to 50 |
| 5 | Ohio, Illinois, New York, Boston | 50 to 60 |
| 6 to 7 | Northern Midwest, northern New England | 50 to 60 |
Zones 1 to 5 are InspectAPedia's simplified heating table, built on the IECC climate zone map (the same zones as the DOE Building America guidance). For zones 6 and 7 we use Bryant's "cold" band of 50 to 60, since its table stops at 5. Both sources say newer, well insulated houses belong at the low end and older or poorly insulated houses at the high end; the insulation buttons pick the low end, middle or high end.
Worked example, and what moves it
| Same 1,800 sq ft house | Heat needed | Input needed | Furnace to price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zone 4, average, 96% AFUE | 85,500 BTU/h | 89,063 BTU/h | 100,000 (96,000 out) |
| Zone 4, average, 80% AFUE | 85,500 BTU/h | 106,875 BTU/h | 120,000 (96,000 out) |
| Zone 4, newer and tight, 96% | 81,000 BTU/h | 84,375 BTU/h | 100,000 (96,000 out) |
| Zone 5, average, 96% | 99,000 BTU/h | 103,125 BTU/h | 120,000 (115,200 out) |
Nominal sizes are 40,000, 60,000, 80,000, 100,000 and 120,000 BTU/h input, the steps in the ENERGY STAR list of certified furnaces (Goodman's -040 to -120 models, for example). Bryant describes residential furnaces as running "from 40,000 to 120,000+ BTUs."
Ceilings over 8 ft scale the load up by volume: a 9 ft ceiling adds 12.5%.
What size furnace do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house?
In zone 4 with average insulation: 2,000 × 47.5 = 95,000 BTU/h of heat. At 96% AFUE that is 98,958 BTU/h of input, and a 100,000 BTU/h furnace (96,000 out) covers it with about 1% to spare. With an 80% furnace the input climbs to 118,750 BTU/h and the size to 120,000. In zone 5 the same house needs 110,000 BTU/h at the middle of the band, beyond what a 100,000 furnace delivers at any AFUE. Bryant's own range for 2,000 sq ft is 60,000 to 120,000 BTU/h depending on insulation and climate.
Why not simply round up
A furnace that is far too big short-cycles: it heats the air in a few minutes, shuts off, and repeats, with more wear and uneven rooms. It also needs more airflow than a small duct system can carry. When the rule of thumb sits right at a size boundary, the smaller furnace plus a Manual J is usually the better bet than the bigger one.
Gas supply and ducts
At full fire, a 100,000 BTU/h input burns about 97 cubic feet of natural gas an hour (1,036 BTU per cubic foot, EIA). Check the line with the gas pipe size calculator, and size the supply ducts for the blower's airflow in the ductwork calculator.
Related sizing
- Cooling for the same house: AC size calculator.
- One room, a garage or a shop: BTU calculator, which also sizes garage and propane heaters.
- Lowering the load before you buy: the insulation calculator shows the R-value for your zone.